Let’s face it, our summer continues to be a bit of a washout with rain and strong winds featuring as a consistent theme throughout, particularly during the Manx Grand Prix. A recent study looked at how future climate change may influence compound wind-rain extremes, finding that as the climate warms, these events are likely to become more severe, with stronger winds and heavier rainfall happening together (Newcastle University, 2024).
The Isle of Man is not immune to these impacts, as we have seen in this summer’s changeable weather. Meanwhile our neighbours in Scotland have seen downpours 140 – 260% more than average (BBC, 2024).
Gary Salisbury, Scientific Officer at the Isle of Man Met Office reports;
“In August, remnants of hurricane Ernesto brought gusts to 50 knots to the Isle of Man. There have only been three other occasions in our records when we have had gusts of 50 knots or more during August, so that’s quite rare. It was windy again the next night with named storm Lilian – gusts 46 knots.
That storm was very wet too; we had over 30mm of rain overnight, including a particularly heavy spell with 12.5mm in just one hour. Certainly very difficult conditions for summer events and campers.”
Higher sea temperatures can make storms, hurricanes and typhoons more intense. Warming ocean waters mean storms can pick up more energy leading to higher wind speeds - the high temperatures are mainly due to long-term greenhouse gas emissions. Added to this, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture which leads to more intense rainfall.
But how frequent are these extreme weather events? And what can we expect from the future? As the climate shifts, event planners face rising uncertainties, putting everything from outdoor markets, festivals to major sporting events at risk.
Chart: Global number of loss events caused by natural disasters, source: MunichRE via Met Office
Climate change is also altering long-term weather patterns (National Geographic, 2024), making it difficult for organisers to predict the conditions for events planned months or years in advance. Traditional weather patterns can no longer be relied upon, forcing a re-evaluation of seasonal events, which could experience disruptions due to unexpected weather conditions.
For outdoor events like concerts, festivals, or weddings, heavy rainfall can turn carefully planned occasions into logistical challenges. Flooding, waterlogging, and mud can render locations unsafe, damage equipment, and force last-minute cancellations. Even for indoor events, torrential rain can disrupt transportation, dampening attendance and straining facilities which are unprepared for severe weather. Reading and Leeds Festival saw these challenges over the August 2024 Bank Holiday Weekend with tents damaged or blown away by Storm Lilian and two stages closed (Sky News, 2024).
While wetter summers are possible, climatologists have projected the longer-term trend for future summers as hotter and drier. Heatwaves and rising temperatures also threaten the safety and comfort of participants. As average temperatures climb, events taking place in hotter months or places risk exposing attendees to heat exhaustion, dehydration, and other health risks. The necessity for cooling systems, shaded areas, and hydration points becomes more urgent, complicating event management and increasing costs.
Financial implications can be substantial, with unexpected cancellations or disruptions can lead to significant financial losses for both organisers, vendors and attendees. With these risks increasing, the industry will need to adapt by investing in more resilient infrastructure, creating flexible contingency plans, and embracing sustainable practices to help mitigate the very climate impacts that threaten its future.